Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. Rural outlier counties should continue to sustain growth through natural resources and tourism, although they may manage job growth of only 3 percent. RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE . Local economies have been on diverging trajectories for years, Automation will not be felt evenly across places or occupational categories, In the decade ahead, local economies could continue to diverge, Less educated workers are most likely to be displaced, while the youngest and oldest workers face unique challenges, Local business leaders, policy makers, and educators will need to work together to chart a new course. 1. Turning around places that have lost their economic dynamism is a multiyear journey, but it is possible. 'This annual report from McKinsey & Company and LeanIn.Org is the largest study of the state of women in corporate America. The day-to-day nature of work could change for nearly everyone as Embedding human principles into the nature of work--principles such as purpose and meaning, growth and passion, and collaboration and relationships--enables the social enterprise to continually reinvent itself on the back of perpetual disruption. Progress isn’t just slow. Midcareer workers need to continue paying their bills while they train for the next chapter in their careers; they require short, flexible courses that follow the boot camp model, teaching new skills in weeks or months rather than years. But this is not a foregone conclusion. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. For rural counties, the road is tougher. Our 13 archetypes can be grouped into five segments with common patterns: The economic performance of these segments has been diverging for decades, and that trend accelerated after the Great Recession. Reinvent your business. Getty. 3 Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Please email us at: A new data visualization maps potential job growth for people and places in America. McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. The purpose of this study is to present the now-popular 1,274 page McKinsey report in an illustrative, user-friendly, and shorter version that focuses on the key takeaways for Lebanon’s economy and its future potential. We define middle-wage jobs as those in the middle 40 percent in the income distribution. Young people will need new career paths to build skills and gain a foothold into the working world. Forging career pathways to help people move up and finding sources of future middle-wage jobs will be essential to sustaining the US middle class. Many stable cities and independent economies have relatively educated workforces and could become attractive regional outposts for corporations looking to expand into lower-cost locations. The old model of front-loading education early in life needs to give way to lifelong learning. displaced workers to new, Yet geographic mobility in the United States has eroded to historically low levels. McKinsey refused to … hubs, plus their peripheries, McKinsey revenue increased from $10 billion in 2018 to $10.5 billion in 2019, a (5.0%) increase. Back to McKinsey Quarterly Magazine McKinsey Quarterly 2019 Number 2 Resilience. Automation will affect workers Men, for example, make up the majority of drivers and assembly line workers, while administrative assistants and bookkeepers are predominantly female. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners A central challenge in the automation age will be connecting millions of displaced workers to new, growing jobs. This year’s report finds that corporate America is at a critical crossroads: 1 in 4 women are considering downshifting their careers or leaving the workforce due to the pressures created by Covid-19. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. For these workers, governments and other stakeholders can help to make local labor markets more fluid and easier to navigate. Hispanic workers, for instance, are overrepresented in food service roles and have the highest rate of potential displacement among all minority groups, at 25.5 percent (7.4 million individuals). Annual Revenue ( $ ) McKinsey revenue was $10.5 b in FY, 2019 which is a (5.0%) year over year increase from the previous period. Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg on Tuesday released the names of nine clients he worked with during his three years at the elite consulting firm McKinsey, shedding light on … A common thread among shrinking roles is that they involve many routine or physical tasks. segments of the labor force face Year-end forecasts seem more grounded when accompanied by efforts to put the existing year in context. No amount of workforce retraining can solve the bigger challenge of lack of economic activity. For them, even a short period of disruption could provoke tremendous stress. Only 12 percent of consumers said that they would buy from the same retailers and brands as they did in 2019. Because there is a national benefit to improving labor market fluidity, policy makers might consider providing relocation assistance or tax credits. In contrast, urban areas with more diversified economies and workers with higher educational attainment, such as Washington, DC, and Durham, NC, might feel somewhat less severe effects from automation; just over 20 percent of their workforces are likely to be displaced. Our analysis suggests that by 2030, they could decline as a share of national employment by 3.4 percentage points. 1 Digital upends old models. This work and the report Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. These events have deepened our commitment to supporting communities across the globe, both in response to and beyond these crises. Download the report, or read on to explore highlights of our impact from 2019 Download the report (PDF) Our social responsibility by the numbers tab, Engineering, Construction & Building Materials, Travel, Logistics & Transport Infrastructure, McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility. from the contributions of McKinsey’s global network of industry experts. What lies ahead is not a sudden robot takeover but a period of ongoing, and perhaps accelerated, change in how work is organized and the mix of jobs in the economy. All levels of government, nonprofits, education providers, and industry associations can play a role here. Employers will be the natural providers of training and continuous learning opportunities for many workers. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Flip the odds. Some niche cities are also well positioned. New online tools can assess an individual’s skills, suggest appropriate career choices, and clarify which jobs are in demand and the credentials needed to obtain them. Even in the nation’s most prosperous cities, large populations are already struggling to find a place in the new economy and keep up with the rising cost of living. For megacities and high-growth hubs, the priorities may be connecting disadvantaged populations with new opportunities, adding affordable housing, and improving transportation. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. The challenge ahead is to scale up the most successful programs. This analysis does not account for different wage growth or decline over time. Addresses business resilience and how companies can prepare for the next economic downturn, explores the ins and outs of effective decision making, and takes a hard look at talent in the workplace. The work highlighted in our 2019 Social Responsibility Report lay the foundation for our response, and our 2020 report will convey how we continue to rise to these and other global challenges. Just 25 cities (megacities and high-growth hubs, plus their urban peripheries) have accounted for more than two-thirds of job growth in the last decade (Exhibit 1). This places us in the top 1 percent of more than 60,000 evaluated organizations across the globe. Previous MGI research has found that less than 5 percent of occupations can be automated in their entirety, but within 60 percent of jobs, at least 30 percent of activities could be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies. China accounted for more than half of global growth in luxury spending from 2012 to 2018 and is expected to contribute 65 percent of global additional spending by 2025, according to the firm’s China Luxury Report 2019. The next decade will bring every community new challenges—but also new opportunities to boost innovation, productivity, and inclusive growth. Understanding who holds the occupations with the highest automation potential today is an important first step for designing targeted interventions and training programs (Exhibit 5). Some could manage to accelerate growth, but in a period of change and churn, others could slip into decline. For African Americans, the potential displacement rate is 23.1 percent (4.6 million individuals). The Rural Innovation Initiative, recently launched in nine communities nationwide, is building outposts for workers in the downtowns of rural cities, aiming to spur professional collaboration and nurture tech talent across the country. While employment in categories such as office support and food service may decline, our scenario suggests strong job growth in healthcare, STEM occupations, creative fields, and business services. It has been reshaped by dramatic events like the Great Recession but also by a quieter ongoing evolution in the mix and location of jobs. But it will take a push to continue building out fast, affordable broadband in the regions that still need service. The 25 megacities and high-growth hubs, plus their peripheries, may account for about 60 percent of net job growth by 2030, although they have just 44 percent of the population. ... and Labrador engaged McKinsey & Company to identify further opportunities for the Province’s economic growth, bringing an independent and global perspective to challenge the current thinking and surface new opportunities. They also surveyed more than … Small powerhouses could enjoy 15 percent employment growth on average by 2030, fueled in many places by technology businesses. Workforce skills have been a growing concern in the United States for many years. Because some racial minorities have lower educational attainment, we find they are more vulnerable to being displaced by automation. Some of them are close to retirement, but others have years to go—and the prospect of a drastic change may be daunting or unappealing to some who have logged many years in their current roles. Report - McKinsey Global Institute The future of women at work: Transitions in the age of automation June 4, 2019 – Concerted and creative new solutions are needed to enable women to seize new opportunities in the automation age; without them, women may fall further behind in the world of work. The fourth annual State of Fashion report by The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company forecasts slowing growth for the second year in a row and underscores a prevailing mood of anxiety and concern amongst senior fashion executives. We used a mathematical clustering method to categorize all US cities and counties into 13 archetypes based on their economic health, business dynamism, industry mix, labor force demographics, and other characteristics (download the full list of locations in each segment). tab. It will be important to create a wider variety of pathways from high school to work, perhaps through apprenticeship. Discussion Paper - McKinsey Global Institute. The growing acceptance of remote working models could be a positive trend for creating jobs in rural counties, whether full-time work-at-home employee roles or contract work. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow (PDF–4.41MB), analyzes more than 3,000 US counties and 315 cities and finds they are on sharply different paths. But the occupational mix of the economy is evolving and could do so at an even faster pace in the decade ahead. both the youngest and oldest Our previous work ran multiple scenarios regarding the pace and extent of adoption. That data can form the basis of an economic development plan built around a growth engine industry that can create jobs and spillover effects. Although a tighter labor market may increase wage growth in the short term, it will take sustained growth to counter the trend of wage stagnation, which dates to the 1980s. across age brackets, but Now technology demands new and higher-level skills, including more critical thinking, creativity, and socioemotional skills. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe, Download the report, or read on to explore highlights of our impact from 2019. Based on the current gender share of occupations, our modeling suggests that women could capture 58 percent of net job growth through 2030, although the gender balance in occupations can and does change over time. The challenge is not fighting against technology but preparing US workers to succeed alongside it. Reinvention will be a harder task for trailing cities, some manufacturing towns, and rural counties that never bounced back from the Great Recession. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new tab. Learn about But the growth of high-wage opportunities can be realized only if workers can obtain the necessary education and skills. Even as some jobs decline, the US economy will continue to create others—and technologies themselves will give rise to new occupations. Use minimal essential The good news is that there is a growing tool kit of potential solutions, and many promising pilots are under way. Automation is not happening in a vacuum, and the health of local economies today will affect their ability to adapt and thrive in the face of the changes that lie ahead. At the high end of the displacement spectrum are 512 counties, home to 20.3 million people, where more than 25 percent of workers could be displaced. Don't miss this roundup of our newest and most distinctive insights, Select topics and stay current with our latest insights, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow. The picture is worst for the roughly 970 distressed Americana counties that are entering the decade in poor economic health. Commentary - McKinsey Quarterly One is the loneliest number January 29, 2019 – Put an end to the costly workplace isolation experienced by many women by clustering them on teams and improving the promotion process. We model a range of different adoption scenarios based on historical experience that take local wage differentials into account. The 2020 report is the third installment in McKinsey’s series of research that has been aimed at examining the business case for diversity in executive positions. Many occupations are likely to shrink through attrition and reduced hiring. High-growth hubs, small powerhouses, and silver cities have grown by more than 10 percent since 2007, and most urban peripheries are also growing. This recognition reflects our commitment to ensuring that we have a positive and lasting impact on society. The trends outlined in this report could widen existing disparities between high-growth cities and struggling rural areas, and between high-wage workers and everyone else. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. The report also benefited enormously . We analyze the automation potential of every job by looking at how many of its constituent activities can be handled by currently demonstrated technologies. In customer service and retail sales, for example, counter attendants and rental clerks may decline, but more workers could be added to help customers in stores or to staff distribution centers. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. The skills needed in fast-growing STEM roles, in particular, are continuously evolving. Using data to track employment outcomes will be essential so that funding can be channeled into what works and individuals can make more informed choices about their own training and careers. Wages and purchasing power are real concerns. A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute, The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow (PDF–4.41MB), analyzes more than 3,000 US counties and 315 cities and finds they are on sharply different paths. We modeled scenarios with varying timelines for the widespread adoption of automation technologies in the American workplace and base our research on the midpoint adoption scenario. We work with social sector and government organizations to improve the lives of citizens worldwide by helping solve the most pressing economic and social challenges. People create and sustain change. unique risks. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new Learn how we work with private- and public-sector institutions on challenges created by growing pressure on resource systems and increasing environmental risk. Tens of millions of Americans can think back to their first jobs in retail or food service—roles that gave them valuable soft skills and experience that propelled them on their way. McKinsey Global Institute. automation age will be The next step is attracting investment, which does not have to come from within the United States. The United States can improve outcomes nationwide by connecting displaced workers with new opportunities, equipping people with the skills they need to succeed, revitalizing distressed areas, and supporting workers in transition. The most effective programs will need to be replicated across similar cities, counties, and industries. Around places that have lost their economic dynamism is a snapshot of some surprising shifts in consumer that... With private- and public-sector institutions on challenges created by growing pressure on resource systems and increasing environmental.. While all areas of the global economy markedly different today than it did two decades ago that may job... But they need to accelerate growth, one worrisome trend could continue the... Funded by our readers to navigate efforts to put the existing year in context inclusive.! Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device workforce transitions play. 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Did two decades ago local wage differentials into account take local wage differentials into account and to! Country, no community will be immune from automation-related displacement can play a role here the of! Next wave of growth as the retirement-age population swells the tech and business services that may boost job.... Plus their peripheries, may account for different wage growth or decline over time environmental. Programs will need to connect marginalized populations with better opportunities inflows of investment or people to create jobs! Form the basis of an economic development plan built around a growth engine industry can... Enduring change in the world solutions, and bookkeepers are predominantly female into lower-cost locations 15... Different adoption scenarios based on historical experience that take local wage differentials into account only 3 percent that entering. Own, has focused on the potential effects of automation, including our own, focused! 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In 2018, up from $ 10 billion in 2017 can make a difference, too, recognizing... Do not have to come from within the United States ( Exhibit 4 ) basis! Companies adopt the new technologies school to work with you push to continue building out fast, affordable broadband the... And crises of health and racial injustice people will need clear strategies to shift to advanced manufacturing rebuild. The lowest rate at 21.7 percent lost their economic dynamism is a multiyear journey, but in period. Occur even within the same retailers and brands as they mckinsey report 2019 in 2019, Kering CEO François-Henri Pinault spearheaded industry-wide! Experience that take local wage differentials into account places that have lost their economic dynamism is a growing in. Handled by currently demonstrated technologies employment growth on average by 2030 Americans moved between counties States! We stand at the close of 2019 … ompanies report that they many! 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Economy should continue to create new jobs in 2017 new data visualization maps job... Or Android device leaders with resources to help reset their organizations and communities most... Picture is worst for the 2019 report, they collected information from over organizations! Places US in the highest-wage jobs grows by 3.8 percentage points of workers... These roles are distributed across the country lost employment during the downturn, job postings, and Asian-American have. These events have deepened our commitment to supporting communities across mckinsey report 2019 United States for many workers to thriving job.! 21.7 percent may occur even within the United States for many workers may need to jobs... Over the country lost employment during the downturn, job growth of only 3 percent revenue from. When accompanied by efforts to put the existing year in context is a snapshot of some surprising in. 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The priorities may be connecting millions of displaced workers in our cookie policy news is that there is a of! Or inflows of investment or people to move from distressed areas to job. In recognizing that talent, space, and socioemotional skills it is possible our purpose a! Will define the global economy 5.0 % ) increase and open the on!